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  • GsxInShed
    replied
    Are ...yes..... "Dooms Day"

    But what of the people who just get on with their lives...? Move through life with only the best hopes for their families and friends...? Who build and carry the economy..

    Pay exhorbetent taxes...medical bills... have children.....love life.... take holidays.... Play sport.... Eat takeaway........buy furniture......new phones.... teach....appreciate......belong..... are productive, grateful.

    Paint ...make music.....share ... need love......give.....and want even more for their kids. What of them...? Of us...?

    There's billions..... we move a grain of sand every day..... just one... together we move a billion grains. Each n every day.

    Leave a comment:


  • QUACKA
    replied
    rates are low so people are able to service the massive amount of personal debt a lot of aussies have got, i think and hopefully it does not happen if people have not reduced that debt and rates go up and or lose there job as said there will be trouble. In saying that our banks did not take on the amount of dodgy low doc home loans as in the u.s.a. which really was a disaster. Banks can and will foreclose on a loan even if you are making the repayments when shit hits the fan and they need to raise capital. I remember when the commonwealth took over bankwest they closed down on what they saw as risky business loans even though they were making the payments.

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  • Halo_2
    replied
    Originally posted by nobbydoldrums View Post
    1. The state still has two mega LNG projects in construction and final commissioning which will start shedding more people very soon and throughout the next year or two. Ichthys in NT may keep a bunch of West Aussies going for a little longer.
    2. There are zero of these mega projects in the pipeline for W.A. These projects are up to twenty years from inception to completion and the fast track smaller projects are generally five years at least. In previous recessions there have always been projects waiting in the wings.
    3. I don't know much about the mining side - but I'm not aware of anything major waiting in the wings.
    4. I don't believe the trickle-down effect from construction / O&G / mining to the rest of the economy has really begun in earnest.
    5. I am hearing a lot of stories of guys who have come off the big bucks and are holding on to their home / properties for dear life - mostly from how they have been educated that staying in property is key to their financial future, but also losing a house is really hard on family.
    +1 Alot of work is drying up and some people properties have paid x4 as much as they should, going to be alot of foreclosures

    Originally posted by Rider View Post
    If anyone has as good idea its the banks; they would have teams and teams of people who look into the crystal ball.
    They have no f*cking idea we are in uncharted waters with trillions owed, they created the GFC greed got the better of the richest people in the world.

    They way I look at it once the work has dried up there is going to be alot of foreclosures, they can recover bad debts by increasing interest rates on the rest of the market. If they go up too much they risk collapsing the market.

    But not only that their predicting a asian recession next year (can't keep building ghost cities), NAB's Ken Henry has said himself in 2016 there is a very real possibility of a meltdown of the global financial system.

    Leave a comment:


  • nobbydoldrums
    replied
    I felt I had to lob in here after following some of the posts. I see you guys are watching economic indicators which is a really good idea, however there are some things to keep in mind:
    1. The state still has two mega LNG projects in construction and final commissioning which will start shedding more people very soon and throughout the next year or two. Ichthys in NT may keep a bunch of West Aussies going for a little longer.
    2. There are zero of these mega projects in the pipeline for W.A. These projects are up to twenty years from inception to completion and the fast track smaller projects are generally five years at least. In previous recessions there have always been projects waiting in the wings.
    3. I don't know much about the mining side - but I'm not aware of anything major waiting in the wings.
    4. I don't believe the trickle-down effect from construction / O&G / mining to the rest of the economy has really begun in earnest.
    5. I am hearing a lot of stories of guys who have come off the big bucks and are holding on to their home / properties for dear life - mostly from how they have been educated that staying in property is key to their financial future, but also losing a house is really hard on family.

    I have been very wrong about real estate trends in the past, however I cannot fathom how a real estate recovery could happen during the next 3-5 years - there is no logic to it. Whilst I think that Aus property is always going to be comparatively attractive for foreign investment, people still need an economic reason for people to settle here.

    I sold my house early this year and I am planning on leaving at least two years for the market to settle before I jump back in. For the sake of friends and colleagues I hope I am wrong and I hope there is a recovery sooner, but the facts don't stack up to me.

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  • Rider
    replied
    Originally posted by chew View Post
    I usually judge the state of the economy by the petrol price, which has been rising, hence inflation will rise and the money lenders all go, "They can afford more expensive fuel" lets get 'em.

    Also they need more money to lend for the cheaper properties around so increasing rates encourages more money into savings so that they can lend it out.....I think?

    It does show a bit of confidence returning in my humble cynical outlook.
    The way i see it as well mate. Also fixed rates are good indication on where the economy is going/expectation of future rates. If anyone has as good idea its the banks; they would have teams and teams of people who look into the crystal ball.

    Having said that, i do think there is a lot of speculation at the moment if terms of what will Donald Trump mean for the economy. I think this speculation is a big gamble, which we wont know the outcome for a year or 2.

    Leave a comment:


  • chew
    replied
    Originally posted by Halo_2 View Post
    Must want the market to crash
    I usually judge the state of the economy by the petrol price, which has been rising, hence inflation will rise and the money lenders all go, "They can afford more expensive fuel" lets get 'em.

    Also they need more money to lend for the cheaper properties around so increasing rates encourages more money into savings so that they can lend it out.....I think?

    It does show a bit of confidence returning in my humble cynical outlook.

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  • Halo_2
    replied
    Must want the market to crash

    Leave a comment:


  • Para045
    replied
    Originally posted by boeman View Post
    We don't have too many more years until we will own our current place. Maybe 6 or 7 depending on windfalls and losses along the way.

    Or, do we just cruise along and go on more holidays and buy shiny things since we don't have a mortgage.
    That's pretty much where we are ATM, we hammered the shit out of the mortgage on the current house which while it isn't huge had most stuff we wanted and needed at the time in a reasonable area and had older but reliable vehicles
    My salary pays all the bills and the missus works part time which pays for our holidays and treats etc and with the equity in the house have been able to buy an investment property in mid NSW which handily is pretty much neutral as far as costs/income but gives me a nice tax break
    Having the investment loan has also meant we were able to draw back on that and upgrade our cars, not brand new but near new low mileage with nice appointments We'll never be rich but at least we are stress free and happy, we can do and get pretty much what we want when we want it without worrying

    Leave a comment:


  • XSorXpire
    replied
    We're still able to get 3.64% variable or 3.89% fixed for three years. (80% lvr on ppr)

    If you are worried about what the banks are going to do to you, lets chat finance...

    Leave a comment:


  • chew
    replied


    Westpac, National Australia Bank online and other banks are planning to raise fixed and variable home loan rates by up to 60 basis points.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/na...t-rates/#page1

    Leave a comment:


  • INTJ
    replied
    Originally posted by boeman View Post
    This is my life conundrum.

    We don't have too many more years until we will own our current place. Maybe 6 or 7 depending on windfalls and losses along the way.

    So, do we upgrade, in turn having our dream home with a LVR of 50%? Or, do we just cruise along and go on more holidays and buy shiny things since we don't have a mortgage.
    Think outside the box - $150k can get you a charming villa/cottage in countryside France... an apartment in Colorado... a few acres in WA's countryside... if the house you have right now is 'good enough', rather than upgrade to a 'better' house, why not get a 2nd somewhere else? If you're that close to easy street, with more time for holidays, an overseas or country retreat might float your boat. That's my plan anyway, if I do end up going back-and-forth as often as I do.

    Leave a comment:


  • XSorXpire
    replied
    It's nice when you own your own home.

    There is a lovely feeling of freedom.

    For us, we decised to set ourselves up for the future and invested.
    Back in to debt we went.

    It was a hard call, but we went in with a goal in mind and an understanding of the costs involved.
    We also set up safety nets for unforseen circumstances.


    We could have moved to a nicer house in a less troublesome area. But the central location is good for us, so we stayed.

    We planned for a nicer future than what the govt and our super will give us.
    And though our income is nowhere near fifo level, we still take holidays and go on adventures.

    Leave a comment:


  • boeman
    replied
    Originally posted by INTJ View Post
    Only need 20hrs at maccas to fill the fridge and pay rates
    This is my life conundrum.

    We don't have too many more years until we will own our current place. Maybe 6 or 7 depending on windfalls and losses along the way.

    So, do we upgrade, in turn having our dream home with a LVR of 50%? Or, do we just cruise along and go on more holidays and buy shiny things since we don't have a mortgage.

    Leave a comment:


  • INTJ
    replied
    Originally posted by Rider View Post
    When things are booming people have lot of confidence, recruitment companies are always running jobs past them, they go from one job to another and each job pays more and more. Life is good.
    When life is good, savings accounts can grow quickly, then houses can be bought with cash and by that stage, when jobs are lost, who cares :-) Only need 20hrs at maccas to fill the fridge and pay rates

    Leave a comment:


  • Halo_2
    replied
    Originally posted by chew View Post
    People in the boom sections maybe, a lot of people, probably the majority just keep plugging away with CPI increases and don't cry when things go pear shaped or make smarter decisions.
    A Fool and His Money Are Soon Parted
    The rest not in mining had to make ends meet while the price of everything sky rocketed

    Leave a comment:

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