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  • Originally posted by nobbydoldrums View Post
    1. The state still has two mega LNG projects in construction and final commissioning which will start shedding more people very soon and throughout the next year or two. Ichthys in NT may keep a bunch of West Aussies going for a little longer.
    2. There are zero of these mega projects in the pipeline for W.A. These projects are up to twenty years from inception to completion and the fast track smaller projects are generally five years at least. In previous recessions there have always been projects waiting in the wings.
    3. I don't know much about the mining side - but I'm not aware of anything major waiting in the wings.
    4. I don't believe the trickle-down effect from construction / O&G / mining to the rest of the economy has really begun in earnest.
    5. I am hearing a lot of stories of guys who have come off the big bucks and are holding on to their home / properties for dear life - mostly from how they have been educated that staying in property is key to their financial future, but also losing a house is really hard on family.
    +1 Alot of work is drying up and some people properties have paid x4 as much as they should, going to be alot of foreclosures

    Originally posted by Rider View Post
    If anyone has as good idea its the banks; they would have teams and teams of people who look into the crystal ball.
    They have no f*cking idea we are in uncharted waters with trillions owed, they created the GFC greed got the better of the richest people in the world.

    They way I look at it once the work has dried up there is going to be alot of foreclosures, they can recover bad debts by increasing interest rates on the rest of the market. If they go up too much they risk collapsing the market.

    But not only that their predicting a asian recession next year (can't keep building ghost cities), NAB's Ken Henry has said himself in 2016 there is a very real possibility of a meltdown of the global financial system.
    "Some people are like clouds. When they disappear it's a beautiful day"

    Comment


    • rates are low so people are able to service the massive amount of personal debt a lot of aussies have got, i think and hopefully it does not happen if people have not reduced that debt and rates go up and or lose there job as said there will be trouble. In saying that our banks did not take on the amount of dodgy low doc home loans as in the u.s.a. which really was a disaster. Banks can and will foreclose on a loan even if you are making the repayments when shit hits the fan and they need to raise capital. I remember when the commonwealth took over bankwest they closed down on what they saw as risky business loans even though they were making the payments.

      Comment


      • Are ...yes..... "Dooms Day"

        But what of the people who just get on with their lives...? Move through life with only the best hopes for their families and friends...? Who build and carry the economy..

        Pay exhorbetent taxes...medical bills... have children.....love life.... take holidays.... Play sport.... Eat takeaway........buy furniture......new phones.... teach....appreciate......belong..... are productive, grateful.

        Paint ...make music.....share ... need love......give.....and want even more for their kids. What of them...? Of us...?

        There's billions..... we move a grain of sand every day..... just one... together we move a billion grains. Each n every day.
        " Imagination is the seed of life..."

        Comment


        • Originally posted by QUACKA View Post
          In saying that our banks did not take on the amount of dodgy low doc home loans as in the u.s.a. which really was a disaster.
          Banks around the world have supplied plenty of dodgy loans including AUS just ANZ bank today announced it expects bad debts to blow out to at least $900 million for the first half of its financial year, Chinese four banks collectively wrote off 130.3 billion yuan ($26bn) of bad loans in the first half of 2016.

          APRA, hasn't been forcing Australia big banks and Macquarie to hold more capital lately for nothing
          "Some people are like clouds. When they disappear it's a beautiful day"

          Comment


          • Originally posted by nobbydoldrums View Post
            I felt I had to lob in here after following some of the posts. I see you guys are watching economic indicators which is a really good idea, however there are some things to keep in mind:
            1. The state still has two mega LNG projects in construction and final commissioning which will start shedding more people very soon and throughout the next year or two. Ichthys in NT may keep a bunch of West Aussies going for a little longer.
            2. There are zero of these mega projects in the pipeline for W.A. These projects are up to twenty years from inception to completion and the fast track smaller projects are generally five years at least. In previous recessions there have always been projects waiting in the wings.
            3. I don't know much about the mining side - but I'm not aware of anything major waiting in the wings.
            4. I don't believe the trickle-down effect from construction / O&G / mining to the rest of the economy has really begun in earnest.
            5. I am hearing a lot of stories of guys who have come off the big bucks and are holding on to their home / properties for dear life - mostly from how they have been educated that staying in property is key to their financial future, but also losing a house is really hard on family.

            I have been very wrong about real estate trends in the past, however I cannot fathom how a real estate recovery could happen during the next 3-5 years - there is no logic to it. Whilst I think that Aus property is always going to be comparatively attractive for foreign investment, people still need an economic reason for people to settle here.

            I sold my house early this year and I am planning on leaving at least two years for the market to settle before I jump back in. For the sake of friends and colleagues I hope I am wrong and I hope there is a recovery sooner, but the facts don't stack up to me.
            What have those guys done before the boom?

            Originally posted by Halo_2 View Post
            +1 Alot of work is drying up and some people properties have paid x4 as much as they should, going to be alot of foreclosures



            They have no f*cking idea we are in uncharted waters with trillions owed, they created the GFC greed got the better of the richest people in the world.

            They way I look at it once the work has dried up there is going to be alot of foreclosures, they can recover bad debts by increasing interest rates on the rest of the market. If they go up too much they risk collapsing the market.

            But not only that their predicting a asian recession next year (can't keep building ghost cities), NAB's Ken Henry has said himself in 2016 there is a very real possibility of a meltdown of the global financial system.
            Chinese collapse has been predicted for last 5 + years. Predict it long enough and it will happen.

            Originally posted by QUACKA View Post
            rates are low so people are able to service the massive amount of personal debt a lot of aussies have got, i think and hopefully it does not happen if people have not reduced that debt and rates go up and or lose there job as said there will be trouble. In saying that our banks did not take on the amount of dodgy low doc home loans as in the u.s.a. which really was a disaster. Banks can and will foreclose on a loan even if you are making the repayments when shit hits the fan and they need to raise capital. I remember when the commonwealth took over bankwest they closed down on what they saw as risky business loans even though they were making the payments.
            Business loans are bit different, not saying that it right what they (big 4) did.

            Originally posted by Halo_2 View Post
            Banks around the world have supplied plenty of dodgy loans including AUS just ANZ bank today announced it expects bad debts to blow out to at least $900 million for the first half of its financial year, Chinese four banks collectively wrote off 130.3 billion yuan ($26bn) of bad loans in the first half of 2016.

            APRA, hasn't been forcing Australia big banks and Macquarie to hold more capital lately for nothing
            You are bound to get some. For most part banks in OZ have been clamping down on lending. Westpac has recently reduced the LVR from 97% (including LMI) to 95 %


            I AM NOT SAYING THAT YOU GUYS DON'T HAVE A POINT. I am not saying there are challenges ahead. All i am saying is that there have always been challenges, there have always been people predicting the collapse.

            If you listen to these guys (most economists) you will be paralyzed with fear. And lets face it, they are wrong mos of the time and when they get it right, they are 3 to 4 years off the mark. So yeah, predict it long enough and it will happen.

            Comment


            • I've been seeing a fair bit of commentry on fixing your home loans and how interest rates are going to rise.

              It's quite curious,

              http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-2...t-oecd/8073928
              sigpic

              Comment


              • I locked mine in, just waiting to process hopefully rates dont go up in the mean time.
                "Some people are like clouds. When they disappear it's a beautiful day"

                Comment


                • Hope you got a good rate.

                  We're getting our clients 3.89% fixed for three years at the moment.
                  sigpic

                  Comment


                  • Yep thats what I got, she did ask if I wanted to lock it in for $450, I took the gamble so hopefully its doesn't go up.
                    "Some people are like clouds. When they disappear it's a beautiful day"

                    Comment


                    • If rates rise, are there penalties for paying these off early?

                      - - - Updated - - -

                      Originally posted by Halo_2 View Post
                      NAB's Ken Henry has said himself in 2016 there is a very real possibility of a meltdown of the global financial system.
                      Thirty one days to go, we should be sweet.

                      Oh wait, Obama, Nazi anti Christ is this Saturday!!!!
                      They hung a sign up in our town "If you live it up, you won't live it down"-Tom Waits

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by XSorXpire View Post
                        Hope you got a good rate.

                        We're getting our clients 3.89% fixed for three years at the moment.
                        When fixing your rate, do they stipulate a maximum on extra contributions? I swear I read a few that had a cap of max $10k year extra?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by boeman View Post
                          When fixing your rate, do they stipulate a maximum on extra contributions? I swear I read a few that had a cap of max $10k year extra?
                          Last time I looked into this it depended on whether rates were going up or down.

                          That would have been 10+ years ago.

                          No fucks given now.
                          They hung a sign up in our town "If you live it up, you won't live it down"-Tom Waits

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by XSorXpire View Post
                            I've been seeing a fair bit of commentry on fixing your home loans and how interest rates are going to rise.

                            It's quite curious,

                            http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-2...t-oecd/8073928
                            How easy is it to get them to waive the charge for fixing the rate?
                            Originally posted by Desmo
                            Why be a cunt about it?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by boeman View Post
                              When fixing your rate, do they stipulate a maximum on extra contributions? I swear I read a few that had a cap of max $10k year extra?
                              Its in the loan contract, nearly all fixed rate will be a cap of 10K and offset of only 40%.

                              Originally posted by Commander Keen View Post
                              How easy is it to get them to waive the charge for fixing the rate?
                              They won't, have to work out if its worth it
                              "Some people are like clouds. When they disappear it's a beautiful day"

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by chew View Post
                                If rates rise, are there penalties for paying these off early?
                                There's usually a buy out figure if you wish to refinance. They do charge you a bit for breaking the contract.

                                Originally posted by boeman View Post
                                When fixing your rate, do they stipulate a maximum on extra contributions? I swear I read a few that had a cap of max $10k year extra?
                                Some do.
                                And yes, $10k was the number.

                                Originally posted by Commander Keen View Post
                                How easy is it to get them to waive the charge for fixing the rate?
                                The charge for fixing the rate, or breaking the fixed term contract?

                                If you call your bank they will give you a buy out figure.
                                You can then compare that to what you want to do to see if it is finacially viable.

                                Originally posted by Halo_2 View Post
                                Its in the loan contract, nearly all fixed rate will be a cap of 10K and offset of only 40%.
                                You can always split the loan and have a portion fixed and a portion variable.
                                Run your offset against the variable part and aim to pay that off in the time your other portion is fixed.

                                You get to play both sides of the coin.
                                You hedge your bets on an interest rate rise with the fixed portion and you ride the wave with your variable.
                                sigpic

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