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  • Covid - 19

    So what do people think about this?

    Personally, I'm stressing out. In Australia, the death/recovery is running at 15%. If the number of cases goes up, that figure will likely increase.

    Also worrying are reports that even if you make it, it can damage your lungs for life.

    What is also a worry is the slow response by our Government.

    Shame I don't own a shack in the middle of nowhere.

  • #2
    I've been social distancing for weeks now, I'm not overly worried about the virus, but the moronic population does cause a fair bit of anger and confusion. People need to realise that if everyone does their part, not panic, and stay the fuck away from anyone they don't need to be near, it won't be too bad. The economy on the other hand is a massive concern and its likely that many countries won't be able to survive the economic aftermath, it's much bigger than the GFC. I can't see the unemployment in Australia under 12% for at least a couple of years, and long term, the employment structures will definitely need be set up differently. Living in a shack self sufficiency in the middle of nowhere is sounding very appealing to me

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    • #3
      I find this amusing -

      Originally posted by Crown Perth Casino
      The action never stops at Crown Casino Perth - 24/7 gaming...

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      • #4
        the 15% mortality rate and the thing about ongoing issues with lungs, wheres that information come from? was it a slow response compared to.......... mind you letting in cruise ships after the flight lockout was a bit of a cluster fuck tho


        On the plus side at the moment i will be able to continue to ride my motorbike AND meet my public duty to social distance myself at the same time while having fun, awesome pass time motorcycles, gotta love full face helmets :-)
        I cant help it if your perceptions don't match my reality


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        • #5
          I chose the wrong time to lose 15kgs... it could have come in handy

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          • #6
            Just less cunts on the roads and footpaths. Suits me.
            In sterquiliniis invenitur.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Heretic View Post
              the 15% mortality rate and the thing about ongoing issues with lungs, wheres that information come from? was it a slow response compared to.......... mind you letting in cruise ships after the flight lockout was a bit of a cluster fuck tho
              I think 15% is conservative because it includes China figures which seem BS.

              have a look at Spain https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

              At the bottom of the page are links to other countries.

              Here are some stats from : Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK, Australia

              Deaths : 8257
              Cleared : 12248

              So the death rate is 8257 x 100/(8257+12248)

              Percentage dead : 40%

              I think Australia is CURRENTLY around 15% but what happens when ventilators are no longer available? (Aus has 2,000)

              When Doctors and Nurses start being extra fatigued etc. Likelihood is the death rate will increase.


              Originally posted by INTJ View Post
              I chose the wrong time to lose 15kgs... it could have come in handy
              If food is scarce, yes..Just find a fatty to steal food from.

              Being thin may help you from the virus. Less weight probably means your organs are working better giving you a better fighting chance.

              In the US, the death rate is like 60%...It may be due to them being overweight? Or not seeking expensive medical care?

              I agree about the economy. It will have to be different, but somehow I doubt the poorest will be better off.

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              • #8
                15% 60% ??? Based on the recovery rate?

                The death rate is at worst about 3-4% and for younger people its almost nil.
                Older generations that still use PSB will probably have worse time

                People with no symptoms are NEVER counted, no-one will ever know how many there are of those
                - Mike

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Creme View Post
                  15% 60% ??? Based on the recovery rate?

                  The death rate is at worst about 3-4% and for younger people its almost nil.
                  15% dead is based on all cases worldwide which includes figures from China and Iran which seem much lower than figures from the rest of the world.

                  Dead/recovered was around 15% in OZ, luckily it has dropped to 6%

                  In the USA, the rate (as of yesterday) of dead vs recovered was 72%.

                  3-4% might be if Percentage = (dead x 100) /total cases

                  Which is BS since total cases includes a large portion who we do not know if they will recover or die. Ultimately we will only know once the virus is gone.

                  As for how many actually have it...You can only use the evidence you have, not make stuff up like 60% of virus carriers won't be tested hence rate is lower.




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                  • #10
                    6% in Australia? There have been 7 deaths in total in Australia.
                    So by your maths, only around ~120 people have the virus? In reality its already close to 1900 cases, the case count is still DOUBLING every 3-4 days.


                    Most people 80%+ have entirely mild cold/flu symptoms. Around 15% is likely to need hospitalisation, this has been the case for the Italians, and about 5% need ICU which is why we need to flatten the curve and stop the spread. But this has varied a huge amount from country to country.



                    - Mike

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                    • #11
                      Be careful now, the statement "80% are mild" is misleading. The study that came from only had 3 buckets: mild, severe and critical. Mild included everything up to and including pneumonia that didn't require hospitalisation, so can still be relatively serious. It's not some normal 3-day head cold in the majority of cases....

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                      • #12
                        If you are in the age group of 20 to 50 you have 2% chance of critical illness.
                        50 to 80 you have 1 in 20 people of critical illness.
                        80 and beyond 1 in 5 people of critical illness.
                        Tp.
                        Last edited by Thomas Peel; 24-03-2020, 04:35 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Thomas Peel View Post
                          If you are in the age group of 20 to 50 you have 2% chance of critical illness.
                          50 to 80 you have 1 in 20 people of critical illness.
                          80 and beyond 1 in 5 people of critical illness.
                          Tp.
                          where did those stats come from?
                          Originally posted by SIR sparks a lot
                          remember opinions are like assholes everybody will have one
                          Here lies the body of Dorian Grey
                          Who died while defending his right of way;
                          He was right, oh so right, as he journeyed along
                          But he's just as dead as if he'd been wrong


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                          • #14
                            Good lordy, this thread is worse than reading randoms' comments on a public facebook group page.
                            PSB: I like your old stuff better than your new stuff!

                            Scotty, lock us down ASAP. Don't delay the inevitable. The economy's already fucked. Don't let people die unnecessarily.

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                            • #15
                              "This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years."

                              https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

                              Using those numbers, assuming comparable demographics and medical care, with Australia's 2k cases, they could expect about 40* dead - not just the current 8
                              Last edited by INTJ; 25-03-2020, 10:17 PM. Reason: *Bad math - initially said 400, meant 40...

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