Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Another one bites the dust.

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Realistically, given the size of the Perth bike market there are simply too many shops. Sad, but... (these figures are rough guestimates).
    • Lets say 2 million people in Perth
    • Even if 10 percent ride (and i doubt that, given that many are aged, too young, sick, just don't care for it, etc.), thats 200,000 riders. I'd say this number is a lot lower than that (i'd guess 25% of that - tops), but still... will carry on as the math is simple and it still works out badly...
    • Lets say 10% of THOSE buy a new bike every 5 years (and I'd say that is optimistic), that's
    • 20,000 / 5 = 4000 bikes a year.



    Or say 333 bikes a month

    Between how many dealers? 30? 10 bikes a month each, best case? Maybe 1-2 grand profit each sale on average (best case)...10-20k/month? Would barely pay for the room to keep them on a shop floor. Never mind wages, insurance, actual profit to justify running a business, risk/liability of carrying stock, etc.

    The number of bikes vs. number of dealers makes no sense. Unless motorcycling takes off massively (and the opposite is occurring) then going into business to sell motorcycles in this state with the numbers this way simply makes no business sense.

    For new bike sales, i'd say there's room for maybe 1 (maybe 2 for the big 4) brand outlets in Perth metro for each manufacturer.


    Adjust the numbers/fudge-factor up and down as you see fit, but it just doesn't look good.


    edit:
    If you run my estimate of the number of total riders being say 40,000-50,000 total it works out to the average dealer selling 2-3 bikes a month - for a profit of (guessing) 4-6 grand a month (excluding accessories, etc.)? Which sounds like what is going on right now? Economic boom time maybe things would be better. But you can't run a business banking on boom time. Whilst the current situation is sad, i don't think it is unexpected if you just run the numbers.

    The cost increase on sports bikes coupled with the current economic climate, and much of the change on the new stuff being nanny-aids or emissions focused simply won't help either. Right now for example, i have no desire to blow 25-30 grand on a bike that won't be night/day different to what i already own (I'd rather spend say 20% of that on upgrading my current bike). We simply aren't seeing the level of progress that we saw in the 70s, 80s, 90s and early 00s.
    Last edited by thro; 01-03-2019, 11:24 AM.
    “Crashing is shit for you, shit for the bike, shit for the mechanics and shit for the set-up,” Checa told me a while back. “It’s a signal that you are heading in the wrong direction. You want to win but crashing is the opposite. It’s like being in France when you want to go to England and when you crash you go to Spain. That way you’ll never get to England!” -- Carlos Checa

    Comment


    • #17
      TLDR: Dealerships are a dated commercial structure and we should be buying direct from the manufacture.

      Comment


      • #18
        You can run these types of numbers for anything
        I cant even work out how meth dealers turn a profit.

        i work for a duopoly supermarket chain
        looks like i'll be stuck here forever
        Note: this may not be the universe where the above is relevant.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by thro View Post
          Maybe 1-2 grand profit each sale on average (best case)
          Halve this, even as a best case..!

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by somebodyelse View Post
            You can run these types of numbers for anything
            I cant even work out how meth dealers turn a profit.

            i work for a duopoly supermarket chain
            looks like i'll be stuck here forever

            They don’t have to pay taxes on meth Hahahaha 😂
            Born to ride forced to work

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by INTJ View Post
              TLDR: Dealerships are a dated commercial structure and we should be buying direct from the manufacture.
              The commute to and from the factory in Austria or England would be a bit of a pain for me
              Rest in Peace

              #294

              Comment


              • #22
                ^^^^^You'd get used to it..( see what I did there..?.) ^^^^
                " Imagination is the seed of life..."

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by CbrRider81 View Post
                  They don’t have to pay taxes on meth Hahahaha 😂
                  And you can work out of a cage or a squat...
                  " Imagination is the seed of life..."

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by INTJ View Post
                    TLDR: Dealerships are a dated commercial structure and we should be buying direct from the manufacture.
                    It's what Tesla is going to do as he's closing all his dealers to allow him to lower the price of his Model 3
                    #1 Gold Ticket Holder for the Barfridge Fan Club
                    Originally posted by Phildo
                    Noted. We'll check back on that one in three years
                    Originally posted by filbert
                    i'll pretend you didn't know she was 13

                    98 BADASS TITANIUM BLACKBIRD - Past bikes 1982 XS250 Yamaha & 1983 CB750F with 900 motor
                    Ozblackbird.net Administrator

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Benzo View Post
                      Halve this, even as a best case..!
                      Figured that might be the case. Was trying to use conservative best case numbers but that just strengthens my point.

                      There’s no money selling motorcycles in the quantity required in wa with this many dealers.
                      “Crashing is shit for you, shit for the bike, shit for the mechanics and shit for the set-up,” Checa told me a while back. “It’s a signal that you are heading in the wrong direction. You want to win but crashing is the opposite. It’s like being in France when you want to go to England and when you crash you go to Spain. That way you’ll never get to England!” -- Carlos Checa

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by INTJ View Post
                        TLDR: Dealerships are a dated commercial structure and we should be buying direct from the manufacture.
                        global manufacturers understand factories, its their thing. they dont "get" customers and as Benzo pointed out the margins the dealer network get is so small why bother with the extra cost and layer of "risk" with inventory and servicing, and dealing with the public. if a manufacturer sold say 800 bikes direct in WA and made an extra $800-$1,000 per bike thats still only $800,000, chump change compared to overheads, to have a sales presence, employ staff and service staff. Whats the manufacturers motivation to go direct?

                        yeh "but you could buy it online", sure you could, but choosing and buying a bike is with the "heart" yeh? you can watch a football game or a concert on the TV in your lounge room why would anyone want to go watch it live, i just dont get it...

                        not saying you couldn't but if you like the idea of having a single outlet per state per brand and zero competition lets go manufacturer direct, prices would go up not down because there would be no inbrand competition. You also create opportunities for other brands by letting them into the market by your now concentrated and limited sales presence. ( been there done that )

                        the company i work for, we 100% invent, develop, make, sell and service direct all our products, hardware, software and consumables but its now very niche and business to business not mass consumer market stuff anymore. we shed our layer of dealers but ended up with some now again for some of the reasons noted above.

                        like a lot of industries when mining was full speed ahead it papered over the fact there were too many players in most industries, its a correction now we are getting back to normal i think as people fuck off back to wherever they came from now the boom is gone and left us to pick up the pieces, had to happen sooner or later. sad for those involved though.
                        I cant help it if your perceptions don't match my reality


                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Heretic View Post

                          yeh "but you could buy it online", sure you could, but choosing and buying a bike is with the "heart" yeh? you can watch a football game or a concert on the TV in your lounge room why would anyone want to go watch it live, i just dont get it...
                          .
                          This is going to be the unfortunate outcome. When buying a bike you want to sit on it, ride it, hear it before purchase unlike buying a car. I also think if there is one dealer per brand, they may rationalise their offerings meaning alot less choice.

                          What I don't get is how dealers made a living back in the day when the population was alot smaller? Must be effect of online shopping for accessories?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            In terms of Triumph, Lloyd Chapman's closed down leaving only JCS. Yet, another Trumpy dealer has recently opened up next to Cully's. It's one thing for existing stores to try survive, but opening a new one in the current economic climate must have involved determining if there was indeed a market?

                            It seems impossible smaller places can still survive. The place I mentioned earlier only selling 2 bikes/month - the profit on those 2 bikes is less than most people make in a month - and they still have to pay business costs and then their own wage. Don't know if they do servicing but they would have to be selling a lot of accessories to help keep the lights on.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Kristy View Post
                              another Trumpy dealer has recently opened up next to Cully's
                              That's part of Cully's - we sell both Yamaha & Triumph now.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Benzo View Post
                                That's part of Cully's - we sell both Yamaha & Triumph now.
                                Ah, so it is part of Cully's. My main thing was, I assume a lot of number crunching was done given the current market and was deemed sustainable in order to proceed given Trumpy isn't a major brand here and already has a dealer in Perth.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X